Ukraine military aid: What's at stake as Trump halts supplies

The Trump administration's decision to suspend all US military aid to Ukraine has put billions of dollars' worth of weapons and equipment in limbo. Sky News examines the scale of US military aid so far and what's now at risk.

The US has sent $21bn of military aid to Ukraine since the war began.

"Roughly half [of military equipment sent to Ukraine] is provided by the Americans," says former UK Ministry of Defence analyst Paul Moorcraft.

"But it's the high-end stuff - whether it's intelligence, satellites or tanks. This will cripple the Ukrainian armed forces within about two months."

Among those key pieces of equipment is the US-made HIMARS, a medium-range rocket launcher.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy praised the weapon following his country's 2022 counteroffensive, saying: "HIMARS and other precision weapons are turning the course of war in our favour."

Together with the US-made ATACMS, a supersonic ballistic missile, the HIMARS has allowed Ukraine to strike logistics hubs and airfields deep inside Russian-held territory. The US has supplied 32 of the 35 HIMARS systems known to have been delivered to Ukraine.

Sky News military analyst Sean Bell says that these two systems, along with US-supplied Howitzer artillery, are the most crucial pieces of equipment for Ukraine's efforts to hold the front line.

Heavy weaponry is crucial

The war in Ukraine has become dominated by ground warfare, with the result that heavy weaponry such as tanks and artillery have become particularly important.

The US has allocatedi $14.6bn worth of heavy weaponry to Ukraine since the war began. That's by far the largest amount given by any individual country, but significantly smaller than the amount given by the EU as a whole ($18.9bn).

However, Ukraine has relied heavily on the US for certain types of equipment, particularly armoured vehicles and tanks.

Over the course of 2024, the US announced that it would send 5,168 heavy weapons to Ukraine, including Stryker and M113 armoured personnel carriers and counter-artillery radars.

It is unclear how many have actually been received by Ukraine, as the US has not publicly acknowledged delivery of any of the items.

The US deliveries have also included at least 7,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles. The missiles were first delivered to Ukraine during President Trump's first term in office in 2017, before Russia's full-scale invasion of the country.

President Zelenskyy highlighted the weapons in a social media post on Tuesday, writing: "We remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this."

Moorcraft says that high-end equipment, such as the US-made Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles, require frequent repairs using spare parts that only the US can provide.

It also remains unclear whether the US plans to cut Ukraine off from Starlink, the satellite-based communications network owned by Elon Musk.

Last month, it was reported that the US had threatened to cut Ukraine off from the network if President Zelenskyy did not agree to sign a deal over the country's critical minerals.

The deal collapsed last week after a visit by Mr Zelenskyy to the White House ended in acrimony.

"If Elon Musk shuts down Starlink, that's going to be extremely bad news," says Mark Laity, a former NATO spokesperson.

"The Ukrainian communication system is very based on the secure Starlink, and the Americans are paying for a lot of that."

Ukraine is losing equipment as the fighting continues

Without continued weapons deliveries, Ukraine's capabilities will degrade over time as equipment is damaged, destroyed or captured.

In the six weeks since Mr Trump's inauguration, defence analytics firm Oryx has verified the loss of hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles, including 57 tanks.

Among those are items for which Ukraine is heavily reliant on the US, such as the M777 Howitzer.

Since the war began, the US has supplied 126 of the 152 M777s received by Ukraine. At least 98 of Ukraine's M777s are known to have been lost in combat.

Ukraine may have to ration its supplies

"Most things that the US supply can be replaced in terms of systems," says former NATO spokesperson Mark Laity.

"The problem is we don't have enough of them."

European countries have long spent less on their militaries than the US. In 2023, the continent spent just 1.6% of its GDP on defence - less than half of what the US spent (3.9%).

The UK and France, the only two countries to have pledged their forces to a hypothetical peacekeeping force, have a combined 515 combat-capable aircraft. The US alone has an estimated 3,093, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The UK was forced to cut back its donations to Ukraine in mid-2023, after the Ministry of Defence assessed that continued donations would pose "unacceptable risks to the UK's military readiness".

Mark Laity expects that one of the most immediate effects of Mr Trump's decision will be that Ukraine begins to ration its remaining stockpiles of ammunition, including air defence munitions used to defend against nightly Russian drone attacks.

The US-made PATRIOT missile systems have proven critical in limiting the damage from these strikes.

"They will probably have to be more sparing with air defence systems," says Laity. "They may well let certain targets get hit, because they've got to protect the high-value assets."

The US has allocated at least two PATRIOT missile systems for Ukraine, though it is unconfirmed how many have been delivered. Ukraine is known to operate at least four PATRIOT systems - three given by Germany, and one from Romania.

Sky News military analyst Sean Bell says the "inevitable consequence" of such rationing would be "a higher death toll among Ukrainian civilians".

Russia's use of long-range drones against Ukrainian cities has escalated in recent months.

Over the course of February, Ukraine's air force reported attacks by 3,902 Russian drones - compared to just 328 in June.

Laity says these attacks are designed primarily to use up Ukraine's stocks of air defence munitions.

"If you were the Russians, what you were now going to do is probably try to redouble these attacks in order to wear down the Ukrainians quicker," says Laity.

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