Why Conor McGregor has 'close to zero chance' of becoming Ireland's next president

"I am the only logical choice. 2025 is coming," said Conor McGregor in September 2024, appearing to announce his candidacy to be Ireland's president.

Since then, he has made references to what he would do in power despite it being a largely ceremonial role - asserting that he "would have all the answers the people of Ireland seek from these thieves of the working man, these disrupters of the family unit, these destructors of small businesses".

He has received endorsements from Elon Musk and Andrew Tate, and just last week US President Donald Trump said McGregor was his favourite Irish man and had "the best tattoos I've ever seen".

Mr Trump even invited him to the White House on St. Patrick's Day where the 36-year-old complained about Ireland's "illegal immigration racket" - prompting pushback from the country's prime minister Micheal Martin that McGregor does not "reflect the views of the people of Ireland".

Despite the US support for McGregor running in the Irish presidential election, just what are his chances of even being nominated?

"Close to zero," says Gail McElroy, a professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin.

"There's two hurdles. First, you have to get nominated and then you have to win a majority of the vote.

"Both of those hurdles are almost insurmountable [for McGregor]," she says.

Candidates - no matter if they are an independent or affiliated with a party - must be nominated in one of two ways.

The first is to get the support of 20 members of the Oireachtas - representatives in Ireland's lower and upper houses of parliament.

The second way is to be nominated by four of Ireland's 31 local authorities, ie county or city councils.

"There's a lot of [Oireachtas members] - 60 senators and 174 TDs [Irish MPs], but most of those are party affiliated and they won't nominate [McGregor]."

Professor McElroy says it's "not uncommon" for presidential candidates to be nominated via local authorities - but councils don't typically support candidates like McGregor.

"You're talking about different types of characters, you know Mary Davis, who runs the Special Olympics [who ran for president in 2011]. It's likeable candidates who county councils feel should have the option to run.

"Conor McGregor is toxic in Ireland. I think it's almost inconceivable that four county councils would endorse him."

Even if McGregor did make it through the nomination process, his chances of getting elected are "really just impossible", Professor McElroy says.

McGregor's far right and populist policies may on the surface appeal to disenchanted voters - his social media posts were linked to the 2023 anti-immigration Dublin riots - but a December 2023 poll in the Irish Independent found that just 8% of respondents would vote for McGregor, with 89% saying they would not cast a ballot for him.

While there is part of the electorate that would support Trump-like candidates, Ireland has "nothing in comparison to the proportion of Americans who share those views".

"There are people with right-wing views or populist views or anti-immigrant views but not enough to affect McGregor.

"It would be a small minority vote. He's so far out. There are many, many candidates ahead of him."

Professor McElroy says that Irish voters typically choose a president who is seen as transcending politics - though this was not the case in the last presidential election in 2018.

Peter Casey, a panellist on Ireland's version of Dragon's Den, won nearly a quarter of the vote after running on a right-wing, anti-Traveller platform.

But Professor McElroy said Mr Casey "doesn't have the same degree of baggage that Conor McGregor has".

She is referring to the November 2024 judgement that awarded 35-year-old Nikita Hand, who accused McGregor of raping her, more than £200,000 in damages.

A video game company cut ties and Tesco was one of several retailers that stopped selling alcohol brands linked to McGregor after the jury in the case found the mixed martial arts fighter assaulted Ms Hand in a hotel in 2018.

McGregor, who rose to worldwide prominence for winning several UFC championships, is appealing against the outcome of the civil case.

He has also pleaded guilty to assaulting a man in a Dublin pub in 2019 and has been subject to several other allegations of assault and sexual assault.

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"His reputation in Ireland has always been less glowing and the [civil] case certainly hasn't helped. The general view is that Nikita Hand was very brave and very impressive and very strong," Professor McElroy said.

She added: "I can imagine him being a bit of a joke candidate for some people, you know, young men thinking we're going to have a bit of fun but there just really isn't a sufficient constituency for him there, especially in light of that civil case."

McGregor's St. Patrick's Day trip to the White House was also "completely damaging" to any potential candidacy, Professor McElroy said.

"Public opinion in Ireland is not too impressed at the power bid. Elon Musk, Donald Trump - they're not popular here. Aligning with them is actually probably a bad move."

Ireland's system of voting - where voters rank candidates by order of preference - would also hinder McGregor.

"It tends to favour people who are transfer-friendly, it tends to favour moderates and people at the centre.

"He would be very untransfer-friendly, you either like him or you don't. He's a Marmite character so it would work against him."

A date for the Irish presidential election has not yet been set but it must be held by October 2025. Only Irish residents are eligible to vote.

Michael D Higgins, 83, was first elected in 2011 and has served the maximum of two seven-year terms. Former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern, ex-European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness and other senior political figures have been floated as potential candidates.

(c) Sky News 2025: Why Conor McGregor has 'close to zero chance' of becoming Ireland's next president